Overall - I feel mostly good: lighter and faster, but tired. After taking a month off with two bad achilles tendons (December 5 to January 6) I've had two solid months of training (see below). In a highly suspect and bizarre numeric coincidence, I've run precisely 68.3 miles each of the last 3 weeks prior to this current drop down week. There was some biking and elliptical training in there too. This week has been no picnic either, but I should not complain. The intervals this week were, again, really hard. I suppose I'm ready for the race on Sunday, but we'll know by 9 am on Sunday
Weight/Fat - I've reduced my body weight from the 177 range to the 167 range over the past two months as planned. I intend to push it down to the low 160s by April 1 by continuing caloric deficit and more protein based "paleo" eating, then level off for the final three weeks of recovery. My body fat has gone from 12% to about 8%, to the majority of weight loss was fat - but not all.
Aerobic conditioning - I feel like I've sustained the conditioning I had prior to the 3:05 marathon in December, maybe increasing it some, but incremental. only
Speed conditioning - there's been a lot more of that during the past 6 weeks. I don't feel like I've really recovered from all of it yet and don't really feel much improvement. I'm hoping this drop down week and race will help
Races and Key workouts - Here's what come to mind. First, the Kook 10K on the 2nd of February. At this point I was two weeks back from my looonggg break. I did the first mile in 6:15 but felt wiped out by mile three. Clearly that was too fast for me and I struggled to finish just under 41 min (6:36 pace). Very hard. Second, the 20 mile run with Bobby Caughey at 7:17/mile average on 15 February. We did the first 10 miles in 7:00 and the last 10 around 7:35 for that average. That was not really a long run, but more like a race for me, without the pain of a real marathon. I don't feel like I really fully recovered from that run as that was the start of a hard three weeks. Third, the Prefontaine workout two days ago. I planned on 6:10/6:40/6:10/6:40/6:10. did not work out that way. According the my actual GPS mileage around the various lanes (1/2) of the track I did 5:49/6:20/6:06/6:37/6:11. Went out too fast again. my HR was at 167 the last mile so it was all in the red zone.
Prediction for Sunday (race day): hoping for a 1:28, will take anything under 1:30. Plan to go out in 6:40/mile through mile 8, try to hold on around 7:45 for miles 9/10 and let it all out for miles 11/12/13 @ 6:00 average down that long hill.